Markets, Margaritas & Mixed Signals: Your Summer Holiday Insight

As the school holidays approach and half the UK gears up to flee to the Med, the global economy seems to be trying its own version of a summer getaway – only with a little more drama and a lot less SPF.

Over in the U.S., markets have been partying like it’s spring break: the S&P 500 has rallied over 25% since early April, thanks in part to President Trump hitting snooze on some tariffs. It’s been a bit of a relief rally – the economic equivalent of “don’t worry, we’ll talk about it after the holidays.”

But don’t pack your optimism too quickly. With new tariffs looming and rising tensions with Brazil and Canada (yes, even the nice ones), global trade is looking more like a family road trip gone wrong – too many passengers, not enough air-con and someone’s threatening sanctions from the back seat.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, our economic growth is going the same way as most British barbecues: full of hope but quickly rained on. A weak GDP print has stoked calls for lower interest rates – which, on the plus side, might help the government’s finances. Silver linings, anyone?

What’s next?

• U.S. inflation readings will tell us if the cost of living is rising – or if tariffs are just more bark than bite.
• China’s GDP data is due – and after emerging from deflation, we’ll see if the world’s second-biggest economy is back in business or just sunbathing.
• And earnings season is upon us – so expect CEOs to tell us how they really feel.